New Guidance for adaptation M&E

Since 2012 Garama has been working with IIED on the development of the Tracking Adaptation and Measuring Development (TAMD) framework for the monitoring and evaluation of adaptation. The aim of TAMD is to provide a framework that can help development planners and project/programme staff to track and evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation activities.

TAMD has already been piloted in a number of countries, including Cambodia, Kenya, Nepal and Pakistan, and is currently being tested out in a number of other countries. Working papers, briefings, country reports and other documentation are available via the IIED website’s TAMD page.

TAMD_Manual_coverThis week has seen the publication of a major TAMD output – a step-by-step manual for the monitoring and evaluation of adaptation. This guidance has been written by Nick Brooks (Garama) and Susannah Fisher (IIED) with additional input from a number of  other co-authors. Tracking Adaptation and Measuring Development: a step-by-step guide can be downloaded here.

Nick Brooks, Garama’s director, has also written a short Briefing on Indicators for the Monitoring and Evaluation of Adaptation, published by IIED and Garama and available for download here.

December 2014 also saw the publication of a further eight TAMD Briefings and Reports addressing methodological issues and country case studies. These can be downloaded from the IIED website here.

The forthcoming Garama-IIED 2-day course on Monitoring and Evaluation for Adaptation, which will run on 12-13 February 2013 immediately after Garama’s 3-day Adaptation and Mainstreaming course, will draw on these materials. Further details of these courses can be found here.

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Adapation, mainstreaming & M&E training courses

Garama will be running its 3-day Adaptation and Mainstreaming and 2-day Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) for Adaptation training courses back-to-back during the week of 9-13 February 2015.

The Adaptation and Mainstreaming course will give participants an overview of key issues and current debates in adaptation, as well as a practical knowledge of methods for mainstreaming adaptation into development work at different scales. It will include  updates on the science of climate and current thinking on adaptation, content on existing mainstreaming tools and guidance, climate screening of development interventions, climate risk assessment, the selection of adaptation options, and an overview of monitoring and evaluation (M&E) for adaptation. Participants will undertake a number of practical exercises. By the end of the course participants should have sufficient understanding of mainstreaming to pursue it in their daily work, whether in the context of individual projects and programmes, or more widely in the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into planning at the institutional or governmental level.

The Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) course, developed in partnership with IIED, will give participants a knowledge of the state-of-the-art of adaptation M&E – an important and rapidly development field in climate change adaptation. Participants will learn about, and apply, recently developed frameworks and methodologies for adaptation M&E, including the Tracking Adaptation and Measuring Development (TAMD) framework and methodologies for measuring resilience. Participants will learn how to undertake the M&E of adaptation at different scales and in different contexts, including at the project and programme level, the levels of national and local government, and in more general institutional contexts.

More details on these courses, including logistical information, trainer details and information on how to register, can be found here. Participants wishing to register for both courses will receive a discount of 10%.

This will be the third time the Adaptation and Mainstreaming course has run, and the second time the M&E course has run in Norwich. In 2014, versions of these courses were delivered for the Swiss Development and Cooperation Agency (SDC) in Nairobi, Irish Aid in Dar es Salaam, and Adam Smith International in Pretoria and London. The courses will be delivered by Nick Brooks and Neha Rai, who have taken a leading role in the development of guidance and methodologies for the mainstreaming and M&E of adaptation, most recently the development of the TAMD framework and M&E methodologies for the UK’s International Climate Fund and the Department of International Development (DFID). As part of the TAMD work, the trainers have also worked on the development of Cambodia’s national M&E system for climate change response, including the delivery of training on M&E to the Cambodian government in a series of workshops throughout 2013 and 2014.

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New flyer on 2014 training courses

Here is a handy 1-page flyer summarising the professional development courses we are offering in 2014, in Adaptation & Mainstreaming, Adaptation M&E, and Climate Change & Migration. Please feel free to download and circulate it.

Garama_courses_flyer

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New course on Adaptation M&E

Garama will be partnering with IIED to offer a course on Monitoring and Evaluation for Climate Change Adaptation. Will will run a 2-day version of this course in July 2014 in the UK, in either Norwich, London or Edinburgh (precise dates to be confirmed). After that we plan to run the course regularly in the UK, and to offer it as a mobile course that can be delivered outside the UK and tailored to the needs and interests of development institutions.

The course will outline the challenges of M&E for adaptation, review existing approaches, and present some methodological approaches for assessing the effectiveness of adaptation, that go beyond the usual focus on outputs. The course will include discussion of the TAMD framework (among others) and recent developments in the measurement of resilience. It will address the emerging issue of ‘normalisation’ – i.e. how to track the success of development interventions in the face of evolving climate risk contexts that will make the achievement of development goals more difficult. The course will draw on experiences of developing M&E frameworks in a number of countries, from national-level frameworks to frameworks for tracking adaptation at the district level and smaller scales.

Feel free to send us an email if you want to register your interest at this stage.

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Garama’s activities in 2014

2014 looks set to be a busy year for Garama. We are running three instalments of the Adaptation and Mainstreaming course, in March, July and October, with the October course followed immediately by our new course on Climate Change and Migration. In addition, we are consideration running a new course on Monitoring and Evaluation for Climate Change Adaptation – watch this space. Garama is also in discussions with a number of organisations regarding the delivery of tailored training courses, both inside and outside the UK.

Training aside, we are continuing to lead on the methodological of the Tracking Adaptation and Measuring Development (TAMD) framework with IIED. We are currently working on a paper addressing the use of indicators for adaptation M&E within the TAMD framework. In December 2013 Garama’s Director, Nick Brooks, participated in a workshop in Phnom Penh on the development of a monitoring and evaluation framework for Cambodia’s National Climate Change Response System, which will draw on TAMD.

Right now we are working with Landell Mills on a short assignment for DFID, Assessing the impact of ICF programmes on household and community resilience to climate variability and climate change, the aim of which is to (i) evaluate the applicability of existing frameworks for measuring resilience to projects under the International Climate Fund (ICF) and the ICF programme titled Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Extremes and Disasters (BRACED) and (ii) develop a methodology for measuring resilience that can be applied in ICF and BRACED contexts.

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October training update

The first Garama 3-day course on Climate Change Adaptation and Mainstreaming for Development Professionals took place in Norwich last week (8-10 October), and brought together participants from UNIDO, JICA, UK local government, and NGO work on agricultural development.

Participants heard about the latest climate change science from the recently released draft report of IPCC Working Group I, and worked through the key elements of the mainstreaming process, including climate screening, risk and vulnerability assessment, the selection of adaptation measures, and monitoring and evaluation. Impacts and adaptation in key sectors and for supply chains were discussed, and the training was closed with a presentation and discussion around climate finance and international climate policy, led by guest speaker and Garama Affiliate Heike Schroeder from the University of East Anglia.

Participants also worked on a number of practical exercises involving (i) screening project documents to identify potential climate change risks and opportunities, (ii) a ‘light-touch’ climate risk assessment using online climate data platforms, and (iii) the identification of potential adaptation measures. These exercises were based on publicly available documentation of World Bank projects in Ghana (agriculture) and Vietnam (infrastructure). One of the most interesting comments from participants was that the issues around the Vietnam project were very similar to those associated with an infrastructure project in the UK. Value was added to this exercise by the presence on Day 3 of Garama Affiliate Alexandra Winkels (University of Cambridge), who had just returned from the Vietnamese province in which the project is located, and spoke about the intersection of development and the vulnerability of migrant groups.

Feedback from participants was very positive, and the potential for delivering versions of the course tailored to suit specific institutional and sectoral contexts was discussed and will be explored further. Participants commented that they thought the course was very good value for money, and they enjoyed the experience of staying and going out in Norwich. Certificates were awarded at the end of the course.

We intend to run the course at regular intervals, with four sets of dates planned for 2014 that will be confirmed subject to demand. These are 14-16 January, 11-13 March, 22-24 July, and 7-9 October.

We can add dates to the calendar, for example if an organisation wishes to send four or more staff on the course. In such cases we are happy to negotiate a mutually convenient set of dates.

We can also deliver the course, or a tailored version of it, anywhere within or outside the UK.

For more details contact us or check the course web page (regularly updated).

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Update on next training course

There is still time to register for Garama’s forthcoming 3-day Adaptation and Mainstreaming course, which will be held in Norwich, UK from 8-10 October. We have four confirmed registrations, a further five registrations to be confirmed subject to visas, and potential interest from other quarters.

The October course will include participants from Africa, South Asia and southeast Asia, and from international organisations and national agencies working in a range of countries. Participants’ sectoral interests include agriculture, infrastructure, water and disaster risk reduction. These regional and sectoral interests will be reflected in the course content.

The course fee is £800 excluding accommodation (you can arrange this yourself or we can arrange it for you). Please contact us to register, or visit the course page for more details and a registration form.

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African Agriculture: a hard sell in a hot climate?

By Nick Brooks, Director of Garama 3C Ltd.

At the last round of the African Development Bank Group’s Annual Meetings, held in Marrakech at the end of May 2013, Abdirahman Belieh, head of the AfDB’s Department of Agriculture and Agro-Industry, emphasised the need for transformation of the agricutural sector in Africa. Specifically, Belieh advocated a “transformation from the traditional way of producing for consumption to producing for commerce.” This will be achieved by “training farmers and smallholders into the idea of transformation of agriculture and commercialisation of agriculture so that they can be entrepeneurs that will produce, consume and at the same time have have the mentality of producing for the market.” Belieh also stated that “whenever we are doing business in agriculture we must also take into account the isue of climate” (1).

While there is an obvious and urgent need to enhance agricultural productivity and improve food security across the continent, doing this in the face of climate change is likely to be challenging. This challenge is widely recognised, at least in principle, and there is increasing emphasis on building resilience to climate change into African agriculture. A variety of measures including seasonal forecasts, weather-related insurance, improved irrigation, and agricultural research are commonly invoked as ways of building resilience in the agricultural sector. Better transport and communications, and thus better access to markets, are rightly seen as ways of improving the lot of smallholders and reducing poverty. Commercialisation of smallholder agriculture can add value to agricultural products and generate income that helps farmers invest in agricultural improvements, adaptation and other livelihood activities that may make them less vulnerable to climate-related shocks.

Nonetheless, commercialisation carries risks, particularly when it is pursued against a backdrop of increasing climatic variability and uncertainty. Too often there appears to be an implicit assumption among development planners that adaptation simply means expanding commercial agriculture and making it more ‘resilient’, coupled with the expectation that agricultural ‘modernisation’ will somehow tend to make countries less, not more, susceptible to the impacts of climate change.

The history of agricultural development in Africa offers some cautionary lessons about commercialisation in an unpredictable climate. The development model in which people are encouraged to move from the subsistence sector to the commercial sector was introduced during the colonial period, and continued by post-colonial African governments (2). This model was pursued particularly vigorously in West Africa and the Sahel, an area characterised by marginal and highly variable climatic conditions, with large changes in rainfall from year to year, associated with fluctuations in the strength of the African Monsoon. On timescales of decades and longer, significant variations in rainfall are associated with shifts in the position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that is closely linked with monsoon dynamics (3). These shifts in turn are mediated by changes in ocean surface temperatures, which are sensitive to global climate change (4).

A big push for commercialisation of agriculture in the Sahel took place in the 1950s and 1960s, a period of particularly high rainfall (3). The move to commercial agriculture involved agricultural intensification and the expansion of agriculture into areas that were seen as potentially productive but ‘under-utilised’, often in the drier northern regions. The expansion of agriculture in these areas put pressure on pastoralists, who were systematically marginalised by development policies (a situation that persists to this day (5)), and pushed further into the desert fringes as historical grazing lands were converted to crop land.

The humid conditions of the 1950s and 1960s did not last, and rainfall began to decline in the late 1960s, culminating in severe drought in the early 1970s (3). Many smallholders lost their farms, millions of livestock were lost, and an unknown number of people died in the ensuing famine. Livelihoods were destroyed and communities and societies at large were disrupted as people left their homes in search of food and work (6, 7). In some areas such as northern Senegal, irrigation programmes were implemented in order to sustain the agricultural expansion that had occurred during the previous wet period; clashes between herders coming from the north and settled farmers in this area precipitated the Senegal-Mauritania border conflict of 1989 (8).

Food insecurity and conflicts between farmers and herders over land rights remain chronic problems in much of the Sahel today (7). These are not simply the result of drought or climate change, but rather of decades of development policies, based on a transition from subsistence to commercial agriculture, that have failed to grapple with the need to address extreme climate variability, and that have marginalised traditional livelihoods, specifically mobile pastoralism, in favour of agricultural expansion into pastoralists’ traditional grazing areas (5).

By emphasising commercialisation, productivity and economic efficiency at the expense of traditional livelihoods, development planners in the Sahel built a house of cards based on unsustainable agriculture that massively increased the region’s (and its populations’) vulnerability to climate change. Traditional livelihoods may not have been particularly productive by modern economic standards. However, this was not because they or the people that practiced them were somehow backward or primitive, or simply didn’t have the ‘capacity’ to produce more. Rather, it was because the inhabitants of the Sahel historically have been more concerned with livelihood security, and the predictability of food supply in the face of extreme environmental uncertainty, than with producing surpluses for commercial sale. Mobile pastoralism and low-productivity, low-impact agriculture requiring few inputs and based on various risk spreading practices are sensible strategies in a marginal and highly variable environment.

This point was not appreciated by development planners who forgot that national economies (particularly those built on agriculture) do not exist in isolation from the physical environment, and that the physical environment of the Sahel is particularly dynamic and unpredictable. The sustained high rainfall of the 1950s and 1960s and the multi-decadal dry period that followed may have been ‘unusual’ compared with the pattern of alternating wetter and drier years that characterised the first half of the 20th century, but such extreme multi-decadal variability is a characteristic of the Sahel and other semi-arid regions (3). By implicitly assuming that the climatic conditions of the day would continue, development planners in the mid-20th century Sahel exhibited a deadly ignorance of the environmental context in which development was embedded.

The past is not the future, and the Sahel is not Africa. Nonetheless, the problematic history of agricultural development in the Sahel, driven by the imperative of a transition from subsistence to commercialisation, should give African governments and policymakers pause for thought. There is no reason in principle why African agriculture cannot become more commercially oriented, or why African producers cannot take advantage of modern technology and innovative practices to add value to what they produce. In fact this will be vital in the fight against hunger and poverty in the continent. However, these reasonable goals need to be pursued with open eyes, and must be based on a sound understanding of the potential risks – risks that will be heightened as weather and climate become less predictable in a world that is transitioning to a different climatic state as a result of global warming.

There are likely to be parts of Africa where settled agriculture remains possible under climate change, but only if it is based on entirely different crop mixes and cropping practices to those of today. In such locations, adaptation might involve the import of cropping systems from other areas where today’s climatic conditions represent analogues for potential future conditions (10). However, in some parts of Africa there may be no such analogues, and adaptation will depend on the development of completely new ways of doing things (10). Simple ‘climate proofing’ of existing agricultural systems through the introduction of measures to make farmers more ‘resilient’ will be insufficient in such contexts. Instead, more ‘transformational’ adaptation will be required (11).

While climate change will demand novel adaptation solutions in many instances, traditional livelihood models and practices should not be written off. These are not simply legacies of a more primitive past, but key components of complex social and cultural systems that have developed in specific environmental contexts. While those contexts will evolve as the world – and Africa – warms, the need for flexibility, mobility and risk spreading is likely to increase rather than decrease. Traditional systems that have evolved to meet these needs in historically marginal environments will provide a basis for further adaptation, particularly in areas where resources are becoming scarce and conventional settled agriculture more difficult. The reasons for the development of these ‘low productivity’ livelihood systems, and their potential adaptation value under climate change, need to be understood and addressed when new agricultural policies are being developed. These new policies will need to accommodate increased environmental variability and uncertainty, and will need to blend the most appropriate elements of the traditional and the ‘modern’, not simply replace the former with the latter.

There must be a place for mobile pastoralism in the new landscapes of African agriculture, particularly in areas where higher temperatures and reduced rainfall may make other forms of production less viable. In such areas, adaptation might mean more mobility and more reliance on extensive livestock husbandry (12), the opposite trajectory to the one favoured by most governments and policy makers. Pastoralism first emerged in Africa in response to climate change and environmental deterioration, and has proved to be a reliable strategy for navigating environmental marginality and uncertainty in the continent for some eight millennia (13, 14). There are environmental limits to the viability of mobile, extensive pastoralism (15, 16), but an environment that is too harsh for low-impact mobile herding is likely to be one in which agriculture is impossible. A phased transition away from settled agriculture, with more support for pastoralism (including adding value to pastoralists’ products) might be the only sensible policy option where climate change means water scarcity will cross thresholds beyond which existing cropping systems are no longer viable (12).

Morocco, where the AfDB’s last annual meetings took place, currently consumes almost half of its annual renewable surface water resources, with 88% of that consumption going to agriculture (17). A 2003 Moroccan study concluded that a warming of 1 degree Celsius would result in a reduction in surface water availability of around 10% in the catchment of the country’s largest dam (18). Climate projections indicate a warming over Morocco in the region of 4 degrees by the latter part of the 21st century, and a decline in rainfall of up to around 40% in some locations (19-22), suggesting that climate change could take available water resources in the country below current usage in the medium to long-term. The figures are similar for Tunisia, where AfDB is based (17). Agriculture as it is currently practiced in these countries, already highly commercialised compared with that of many African nations, will not be sustainable under climate change.

AfDB and other development organisations are not wrong to promote agriculture that increases farmers’ incomes and uses modern techniques to enhance agricultural productivity. However, they need to avoid simplistic, ideologically-driven “subsistence to commercialisation” and “tradition to modernity” models based on narrow and flawed European ideas of progress (7). Instead they need to blend tradition and modernity to build sustainable African models of development that are appropriate to changing African environments, and the needs of Africa’s people.

References

(1) Belieh, A. “Our priority: switch from subsistence agriculture to commerce-based agriculture.” Speech at 2013 African Development Bank Annual Meetings, 29 May 2013. http://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/multimedia/video/our-priority-switch-from-subsistence-agriculture-to-commerce-based-agriculture-abdirahman-beileh-620/

(2) Cooper, F. 1997. Modernizing bureaucrats, backward Africans, and the development concept, in F. Cooper & R. Packard (eds.) International Development and the Social Sciences, , pp 64-92. Berkeley: University of California Press.

(3) Brooks, N. 2004. Drought in the African Sahel: long-term perspectives and future prospects. Tyndall Working Paper No. 61. (pdf).

(4) Losada, T., Rodriguez-Fonseca, B., Mohino, E., Bader, J., Janicot, S. and Mechoso, C. R. 2012. Tropical SST and Sahel rainfall: A non-stationary relationship. Geophysical Research Letters 39, L12705, doi:10.1029/2012GL052423,

(5) Bloch, P. and Foltz, J. 1999. Recent Land Tenure Reforms in the Sahel: Assessment and Suggestions for Redirection. BASIS/Land Tenure Centre, Madison.

(6) Heyd, T. and Brooks, N. 2009. Exploring cultural dimensions to climate change. In W.N. Adger, I. Lorenzoni and K. O’Brien (eds.) Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values and Governance, pp. 269-282. Cambridge University Press (pdf).

(7) Brooks, N., Brown, K. and Grist, N. 2009. Development Futures in the Context of Climate Change: challenging the present and learning from the past. Development Policy Review 27, 741-765. Download (pdf).

(8) Parker, R. 1991. The Senegal-Mauritania conflict of 1989: a fragile equilibrium. The Journal of Modern African Studies 29: 155-171.

(9) Brooks, N. 2012. Climate, Development and Conflict in the Sahel: A Review. Supporting Study (updated) for Goulden, M. and Few, R. 2011. Climate Change, Water and Conflict in the Niger River Basin, 70 pp. International Alert and University of East Anglia (pdf).

(10) Burke, M.B, Lobell, D.B. and Guarino, L. 2009. Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation. Global Environmental Change 19, 317-325.

(11) Brooks, N., Anderson, S., Ayers, J., Burton, I. and Tellam, I. 2011. Tracking Adaptation and Measuring Development. IIED Working Paper No. 1, November 2011. IIED, London/Edinburgh (pdf).

(12) Jones, P.G. and Thornton, P.K. 2009. Croppers to livestock keepers: livelihood transitions to 2050 in African due to climate change. Environmental Science and Policy 12: 427-437

(13) di Lernia, S. 2006. Building Monuments, Creating Identity: Cattle Cult as a Social Response to Rapid Environmental Changes in the Holocene Sahara Quaternary International 151: 50-62.

(14) Jousse, H., 2004. A new contribution to the history of pastoralism in West Africa. Journal of African Archaeology 2: 187–201.

(15) Brooks, N. 2012. Beyond collapse: climate change and causality during the Middle Holocene Climatic Transition, 6400-5000 years before present (BP). Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography 112(2): 93-104. (pdf)

(16) Brooks, N. 2010. Human responses to climatically-driven landscape change and resource scarcity: Learning from the past and planning for the future. In I. P. Martini and W. Chesworth (eds.) Landscapes and Societies: Selected Cases, pp. 43-66. Springer, Dordrecht, Heidelberg, London, New York, 478 pp. Access chapter via Google Books.

(17) Based on data from EarthTrends 2007, World Resources Institute (available at http://earthtrends.wri.org).

(18) Agoumie, A. 2003. Vulnerability of North African Countries to Climatic Changes Adaptation and Implementation Strategies for Climate Change. IIED and the Climate Change Knowledge Network.

(19) Christensen, J.H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R.K. Kolli, W.-T. Kwon, R. Laprise, V. Magaña Rueda, L. Mearns, C.G. Menéndez, J. Räisänen, A. Rinke, A. Sarr and P. Whetton, 2007: Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

(20) Giorgi, F. and Lionello, P. 2008. Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Global and Planetary Change 63: 94-104.

(21) Gommes, R., El Hairech, E., Rosillon, D., Balaghi, R. and Kanamaru, H. 2009. Impact of climate change on agricultural yields in Morocco. World Bank -Morocco study on the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector. World Bank, INRA, Maroc Meteo, FAO.

(22) Füssel, H. M. 2010. Global maps of climate change impacts on the favourability for human habitation and economic activity. Potsdam Institute for Climate Research.

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Adaptation & Mainstreaming course 15-17 July

The next Garama 3-day course on Adaptation and Mainstreaming will run from 15-17 July 2013 (Monday-Wednesday). The course will be held in Norwich, UK. The cost is £1200 (€1450 or $1850) per person including accommodation, or £800 (€970 or $1235) without accommodation. Costs with accommodation are based on 4 nights bed and breakfast, and will be reduced for people staying fewer nights.

The 3-day course is intended to equip development professionals with the knowledge and skills they need to integrate climate change considerations into their work, and to play a leading role in the development of formal systems and processes for climate change mainstreaming at the institutional level.

For more details and a course outline, see the course webpage.

Contact us to register.

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More details of adaptation and mainstreaming training course

We’ve updated the information on our training course on Climate Change Adaptation and Mainstreaming for Development Professionals (formerly Meeting the Adaptation Challenge). This 3-day course is now offerred as a residential course in Norwich, UK, as well as in the form of mobile course delivered at clients’ institutions. The new training pages include information on costs (per person for the residential course and total costs for the mobile version of the course), and a more detailed summary of the course programme.

The 3-day course is intended to equip development professionals with the knowledge and skills they need to integrate climate change considerations into their work, and to play a leading role in the development of formal systems and processes for climate change mainstreaming at the institutional level.

Check out the overview page and the 3-day course page for further details.

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